Population Growth

Population trends within the SOSA region offer a mixed bag of figures. When compiled for the entire SOSA region, the percent change of growth slightly exceeds the national and California average. The Northwest, Northern and Southern regions are fairly similar statistically to the nation. However, the Eastside’s population decline and the Tahoe/Reno region’s explosive growth, attributable to Nevada’s Carson Valley, vividly depict the region’s diverse nature of growth.

The population growth of the SOSA region from 1990-2000 was not an anomaly. Based on U.S. Census Bureau data, California’s Sierra Nevada region grew in population by a total of 130 percent from 1970 to 1990. During the same time period, California grew at a rate of 49 percent. Population in Douglas County, Nevada, grew 74 percent in the same time period, while Carson City increased 61 percent and Washoe County increased 52 percent.

In April 2002, the Nevada State Demographer released population projections for the state and each of its counties for 2002-2022. The three Nevada counties included within the SOSA region are expected to maintain the rapid growth pattern exhibited in recent decades. Carson City is anticipated to have a population of 68,409 by 2022, a growth rate of 30.4 percent. Douglas County, 50,225, (21.7 percent growth rate) and Washoe County, 447,794 (31.9 percent growth rate) are also expected to continue their population growth through 2020. The Nevada Division of Water Planning anticipated, that particular state agency no longer exists, slightly greater population growth for those counties than the state demographer.

California Department of Finance projections, shown below, indicate that the California counties 2000 population of roughly 10 million people will more than double by 2050, with the greatest degree of growth projected for the southern region. Understandably, the Southwest region’s population growth is skewed because a large percentage of the Central Valley counties inhabitants live in the Central Valley and outside of the SOSA region. The information is included because the increased population in the Central Valley affects the Sierra portions of the counties because of water usage, recreational amenities, national parks, tourism and transportation corridors.

Close to 70 percent of the total population in the California portion of the Sierra Nevada lives in the west-side foothill zone, according to the 1996 Sierra Nevada Ecosystem Project (SNEP) report. With continued movement into this area, undeveloped land, primarily agricultural, forest, and rangeland, is a prime target for conversion to rural-residential development. Such conversion usually entails subdividing ranches or farms into large-lot “ranchettes.” Unfortunately, chopping up existing forest, farms, and ranchland into smaller residential parcels can severely impact values that initially draw people to the region: open space, habitat, scenic vistas, and rural character.

The SNEP report projected population trends for the region through 2010 and 2020. The counties along the Sierra Nevada’s western foothills are anticipated to experience population growths of 50-100 percent by 2020.

Download data for poulation trends

Click here for a larger image (1990-2010)
Click here for a larger image (1990-2020)

Age of Farmers

Population growth throughout the SOSA region plays a significant role in the increased need for residential land. Coupling the population growth with an aging population of farmers and ranchers in the SOSA region creates the potential for many parcels of agricultural lands to change hands and possibly uses. Many of the farmers and ranchers are nearing retirement age and active farming and ranching on their lands is not necessarily ensured.

Download 2000 Census Report on Age of Farmers (pdf)

In the 22 California counties represented in the SOSA region, the average age of agriculturalists increased from 1997 to 2002 in all but Inyo and Mono counties. The counties of Plumas and Tuolumne had average age increases of greater than three years during that time period. The average ages ranged from 50-years-old in Alpine County to 59.6-years-old in Mariposa County. However, across the California counties included in the SOSA region, the average farmer or rancher was older in 2002 than 1997. The percentage of farmers and ranchers 55-years-old or older increased from 50.1 percent in 1997 to 52.7 percent in 2002.

Download data for age of farmers in CA

The average age of farmers and ranchers in the Nevada counties of Douglas and Washoe was 57-years-old in 2002. Carson City had a slightly younger population at 53.6-years-old. Perhaps even more telling is the number of farmers and ranchers 55-years-old or older. In 2002, 59.5 percent were 55 or older and 30.5 percent were 65 or older. These percentages represent significant jumps from 1997 when 44.1 percent were 55 or older and 21.2 percent were 65 or older.

Download data for age of farmers in NV

The average age of ranchers in Nevada County, California is over 60; the average age of farmers is nearly 57. In the next five to seven years, we’re going to see a lot of land transferring hands, as current land owners pass away and their relatives or beneficiaries have to decide what to do with the property. This puts a great deal of pressure on the farming families – particularly those that want to keep the farm or the ranch in family hands. Even though the federal government has increased the estate tax exclusion amount to $2 million in 2006-2008 and $3.5 million in 2009, in fast-growing areas like Nevada County, land prices push the value of larger ranches to many millions. Married couples can each take the individual exemption, which effectively boosts the exemption to $4 million. A rancher’s heirs must, therefore, come up with a sizable chunk of money to pay off the estate taxes on the value in excess of $1 million in order to keep the land.

For smaller holdings the $2 million exclusion works. But estate taxes are still a major stumbling block for significant ranches of 500 to 1,000+ acres. In the southern part of Nevada County, for example, land values can easily top $5,000 an acre. So even a 500-acre ranch can appraise at $2.5 million or more, meaning that the rancher’s heirs would have to pay estate taxes on at least $500,000 in value.

To make matters more difficult, the IRS wants the estate taxes within nine months of the landowner’s passing. Because many ranchers are “land-rich” and “cash-poor,” in many cases the only way the family can pay the estate tax is to sell the property. Even if the heirs wanted to sell the property to another rancher, to keep it in production, it typically takes a couple of years to find a buyer who can successfully raise the capital for such a sale. In reality, land developers – not farmers – are the only ones that can come up with the necessary funding in the 9-month tax timeframe. As a result, heirs have little choice but to sell the land to developers.

Land trusts and other organizations are doing what they can to work with willing landowners and their heirs to keep agricultural and ranching lands in productive use through conservation easements and other tools; but the clock is ticking.

Cheryl Belcher, Executive Director, Nevada County Land Trust